Module 1
The Startup Lottery
Every dot below is a startup a fund invested in. Adjust the controls and watch how a handful of outcomes end up carrying the entire portfolio.
Fund Return
0.9x
Capital Returned
$46.3M
Companies Failed
65 / 100
Best Outcome
7.9x
What Just Happened
65 of 100 companies failed outright, and no breakout emerged this run — the fund returned 0.9x.
Why This Matters
Venture returns are not normally distributed. A tiny fraction of investments generate almost all the profit, so the entire business model depends on being in the room for those rare outcomes.
Common Misconception
People assume a 'good' fund avoids failures. In reality, the best funds often have failure rates just as high as average funds — they just have bigger winners.
Key Takeaway
You don't need most of your bets to work. You need your winners to be big enough to cover everyone else.